The Dangers of Assumptions

In the fast-paced world of engineering and technology and business management, the pressure to deliver quick results can often lead to hasty conclusions. It's a common phenomenon: assumptions or inferred conclusions are presented as facts. However, these conclusions, born out of bias, outdated training, or sheer urgency, can be fundamentally flawed. This issue arises because unrelated events are mentally simply associated without a deep understanding of their actual meaning and a lack of critical and analytical thinking. For those with experience in engineering design, development, or tertiary education, this phenomenon is all too familiar. There's a particular type of individual who can string together relevant aspects into a seemingly plausible outcome. Initially, these outcomes may appear convincing, which is perhaps how conspiracy theories gain traction. However, the real test comes when these conclusions are applied to solve real-world problems.

The Pitfall of Plausible but Incorrect Conclusions

Where this approach falls apart is in its application to practical scenarios. Sometimes it is realized that the theoretical knowledge doesn’t hold up in the real world. This disconnect is due to a lack of critical thinking and systems-level understanding. Professionals, particularly experts in certain fields, may also resist considering alternative causes due to entrenched beliefs.

Cultivating Critical and System Thinking

To navigate these pitfalls, it’s crucial to cultivate critical and systems thinking. This involves questioning assumptions, understanding the broader context, and analyzing data rigorously. Here are a few steps to foster these skills:

1. Question Assumptions: Always ask why a particular conclusion is being drawn. What evidence supports it? Is there any bias at play?

2. Understand Context: Consider the broader context of the problem. How do different factors interact? What external influences could affect the outcome?

3. Analyze Rigorously: Use scientific methods to test hypotheses. Gather data, analyze it critically, and be open to revising your conclusions based on new evidence.

This improved blog post aims to highlight the importance of avoiding assumptions and encourages students to practice critical and system thinking through a practical question. The goal is to help students appreciate the complexity of real-world problems and the need for thorough analysis.